Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Swine flu-the real death figures



I am sure we can all remember the panic over the 2009 outbreak of Swine Flu. It gripped the world and had medical science in a frenzy.
Swine Flu, is caused by the good old H1N1 influenza virus and is transmittable from person to person via fluid contact. It was declared a pandemic in June 2009, just 4 months after the first reported case, in March 2009. This was after cases where confirmed in 74 countries.

The World Health Organisation (WHO), placed the number who died from this strain of flu, at 18 500. In their defense, they did indicate this was a gross underestimate. These were apparently the deaths only confirmed by lab testing. The low figure also stems from the fact that the virus is not always detectable once somebody dies and many cases go unreported in cases where people do not have access to health care.

Now, a shocking new study published in Lancet Infectious Diseases, by an International group of scientists, places the real death toll at a staggering 284 500! The real figure may even be closer to 579 000 deaths.
Africa and South East Asia account for 51% of the tally, even though together these areas only account for roughly 38% of the world's population.

Dr Fatimah Dawood, from the US Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, advises the results will help when there are future outbreaks, as they will know the worst affected areas and can act accordingly by way of treatment and prevention measures.

This is a worrying sign. Viruses are a natural success, due to their constant mutation and ability to adapt in need. This is why we cannot kill them off and this is why our bodies cannot build a resistance to them. The fact that the world is so unprepared for major out breaks is terrifying. The bird flu is another that had the world in a spin. We as a race, are retroactive and in cases of pandemics, this is our downfall. Also, due the over population and that many of the most densely populated countries, have very poor, if nay type of healthcare, it is difficult to quantify or control any outbreak. This, together with our constant and easy means of travel worldwide, makes any virus impossible to contain.

Should a virus, like the N1H1 flu virus, mutate, so it is contagious through airborne transmission, it will cause the largest death toll from a virus this world has ever seen and there will be no way of stopping or controlling it.


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